Analysis: Video Game Stocks – At A Tipping Point?

[How might the latest industry decline in September’s NPD U.S. game retail results affect video game stocks? Gamasutra editor-at-large Chris Morris, a financial journalism veteran, examines the plight of the major public-traded game firms in the wake of the disappointing U.S. retail numbers.]

I’m not a stock market analyst. And I’m not a psychic. So seeing as I’m writing this before the market opens on Friday, I’m obviously venturing out on a limb when I presume that video game stocks are getting hit.

It’s not a bad guess, though. Thursday’s NPD numbers were down yet again – and investors who were hoping for a little good news in what has been a gloomy year are likely to lash out. It’s not hard to see why.

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‘Halo: Reach’ Not Enough to Lift Falling Game Sales

Even “Halo: Reach” couldn’t bring the video game industry out of its slump in September.

Software sales at retail stores were down a shocking 6 percent last month to $614 million, according to The NPD Group. That’s vastly worse than analysts were expecting and could scare investors, who were holding out hope that September would be a bright spot in an otherwise dismal year for game sales.

Read more at CNBC.com

September sales plunge. Halo can’t save the month.

The consensus among analysts and industry observers was that strong sales of “Halo: Reach” would be enough to bring video game sales into positive territory in September.

The consensus was wrong. Very, very wrong.

Read more at Variety’s Technotainment blog

 

Video Game Sales: ‘Halo’ to the Rescue?

If all goes according to plan, the video game industry could see its first positive sales growth since March in September—but in a year that has been filled with disappointing results, game publishers and developers know any plan is tentative at best.

Analysts expect software sales to be up slightly in September, largely on the strength of Microsoft’s “Halo: Reach,” which took in $200 million in its first 24 hours. No one is expecting a blowout month, though. Wedbush Securities is forecasting a rise of just 2.4 percent compared to last year’s $649 million.

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Video game industry loses some transparency

The NPD Group, which is the chief reporting agency for video game sales, is making some changes in the way it releases data – changes that will obscure insight into how the industry at large is faring.

Starting this week with the September sales numbers, the organization says it will no longer release any hardware sales information and will cease offering specific sales data for the industry’s top selling titles.

Read more at Variety’s Technotainment blog

 

Holidays aren’t looking happy for entertainment at retail

Given the economy, it’s no secret that this holiday season is likely going to be a cautious one – but a new survey by the NPD Group shows that entertainment companies might have a rough go of things at retail stores.

NPD has released its annual holiday retail outlook– and while most shoppers say they plan to spend about the same as last year, the general lack of “must-have” products has people less enthusiastic about movies, video games and electronics than they were last year.

Read more at Variety’s Technotainment blog

Aug. game sales tank – but hope’s on the horizon

No one had real high expectations for last month’s video game sales. And that’s probably a good thing, since it turned out to be the worst August in three years. 

Software sales fell 14 percent last month to $403.5 million, according to The NPD Group – more than twice as much as some Wall St. analysts were expecting. Hardware sales, meanwhile, were 5 percent below 2009’s level, at $282.9 million – and the Wii had its worst sales month since the system’s launch.

Read more at Variety’s Technotainment blog

For Video Game Makers, Bad News Could Mean Changes

Video game publishers aren’t fooling themselves. They know August is going to be the latest in a string of awful months for the industry.

Sales numbers will be released roughly two hours after the market closes Thursday – and they’re expected to be grim. Michael Pachter, managing director of Wedbush Securities, predicts software sales will drop 6 percent compared to 2009 to $445 million. Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets is expecting things to be even worse – forecasting a 10-15 percent decline.

Read more at CNBC.com

Video Game Sales in July: Better, but Still Struggling

Video game sales weren’t quite as bad as some analysts were expecting in July, but the industry once again failed to match its performance of last year.

Software sales fell 8 percent last month to $403.3 million, according to the NPD Group. Hardware sales, as expected, proved the bright spot and were higher for the second month in a row, surging 12 percent, but it wasn’t enough to save the overall industry from another month of negative year-over-year growth. On the whole, the games industry was 1 percent lower than last year.

Read more at CNBC.com

July game sales disappoint – kind of

Those hoping the video game industry could turn around its fortunes in July got their wishes – sort of. Sales of video game software were down 8 percent last month to $403.3 million. The industry as a whole was off 1 percent to $846.5 million. 

Those numbers, however, did not include sales of “Starcraft II,” which was a PC-exclusive title. (NPD’s monthly numbers only track console sales.) Combined sales of PC and console games were actually up 4 percent over the 2009 numbers.

Read more at Variety’s Technotainment blog